It began as a holiday, but I’m not sure if it counts. As cases soared, our hope for a return to prepandemic nostalgia declined. Evidently, it would not return soon. COVID abundant, the borders were opened, and I was able to see my family for the first time in almost a year.

And so, I returned home - to a people so enamoured with their own politics that they said Jacinda Ardern was their favourite politician. That’s when I noticed it for the first time. Not just the slander, and the segments in the news, the national debates, or the headlines, or the catchphrases. Not just the hard hats and highly visible photo ops, and not just the awkward nicknames. But the discontentment, more palpable than ever.

Before I go further, here’s a brief overview:

Australian federal politics is dominated by two major parties: the centre-left Labor (who prefer the American spelling) and the centre-right Liberals. The Liberals have formed a coalition with the Nationals, a group who sit further to the right and ostensibly represent the rural vote. In parliament, they are known as the Liberal-National Coalition, the LNC, with Scott Morrison as the Prime Minister and Barnaby Joyce as the Deputy Prime Minister.

To further complicate matters, the Liberals themselves are split into factions. Within the party itself lies an enclave of so-called “small-l liberals”, a reference to the common noun usage of the word. Thus, the government is effectively split into three groups: the liberals, the Liberals, and the Nationals.

There are several minor parties, most notably the Greens, but none of these has a chance at winning the election on its own. Much like the Bloc Quebecois, these parties attempt to secure the balance of power in parliament to gain support for their legislation, instead of running broader, “big tent” policies. Coalition or not, smaller parties’ attempts to navigate this partisan system are exemplified by clinging to larger parties – this allows them to have a larger influence than their size might ordinarily allow, but it also requires an unsteady truce between them and the larger parties.

This lends itself to an unfortunate situation: parties like the Liberals, who run a moderate platform with an emphasis on small government and individual freedoms, must present a united front with more extreme, far-from-centre parties in order to have enough support for their bills (and although not a formal coalition, Labor often finds itself relying on the Greens in the same way). But as the leanings between the Liberals and the Nationals diverge, it becomes more difficult to deliver a satisfactory outcome for both parties.

Scott Morrison attributed his 2019 victory to the so-called “Quiet Australians”, who represent a more right-wing, disenfranchised group of voters who tacitly avoided being polled to such an extent that they delivered an upset win. But the Liberals (and to some extent, Labor) have another group of disenfranchised voters to worry about, who tip the other way on the political spectrum.

Polling suggests that the two major parties are set to lose votes to the so-called “Teal Independents”, a phenomenon of socially progressive, economically staid, disenfranchised voters who are seeking to rebuke the LNC’s lacklustre efforts on issues such as climate change. Long-time conservatives have turned and are now backing these independents on climate change and corruption, with trust in government falling across the board as a result. This phenomenon is especially pronounced in the wealthier, more moderately conservative inner-city seats of Warringah and Wentworth (in Sydney) and Kooyong (Melbourne).

Warringah was won by Zali Steggall in 2019, who took the seat from former Prime Minister Tony Abbott in a surprise victory. Wentworth, to the south, was won by Kerryn Phelps (an independent) in a 2018 by-election (more on that later), before being lost to Dave Sharma (a small-l Liberal) in 2019. Currently, Sharma is facing off against Allegra Spender, an alumnus of The Scottish Firm who seems keen to secure a Steggallstyle victory, though against much tighter odds. Kooyong, the Victorian seat of federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, is being contested by Monique Ryan, a paediatric neurologist, in what will be another close call.

Broadly, these independents have not only popular support, but also the support of Climate 200, an unaligned war chest helmed by Simon Holmes à Court (the son of Australia’s first billionaire) and supported by Mike CannonBrookes that gives money to independent, climate-focused candidates.

This reflects a changing status quo in Australian politics, which has long invoked the ire of its contemporaries for its attempts to prop up coal and gas and its lack of commitment to serious climate targets. High income, highly educated, inner-city voters are less likely to condone a “business as usual” approach to climate change, and their changing preferences reflect this. But it also presents a conundrum for the Liberals: on either side, they are set to lose votes in this election, and depending on its outcome, the face of Australian politics could change for years to come.

TAB currently has the odds of a Labor election victory at 1.35:1, with the Liberals at 3.25:1. This suggests that Labor could form a government for the first time in almost a decade, implying a shift to the left for Australian politics, which would serve as a death knell for the Liberals’ highly conservative agenda. A repeat of the 2019 election results, however, could see the Liberals double down on their approach, and this seems to be the result Scott Morrison is banking on.

In New South Wales, Prime Minister Morrison made a contentious “captain’s call” to run the socially conservative Katherine Deves in the moderate seat of Warringah, an erstwhile Liberal stronghold in Sydney’s oldmoneyed east which was lost to Zali Steggall in 2019.

Deves’ platform is contentious, and her transphobic views put her at odds with the electorate. Steggall’s victory is all but assured, with odds of 1.07:1 – so why did Morrison not choose a more palatable, moderate candidate? Why pick Deves, a political unknown and forlorn hope, to run against Steggall, a household name, world skiing champion, and overall more popular candidate? Put simply, Morrison’s pick is a dog whistle in support of the more conservative pockets of Australian politics, and it’s a bet that might not pay off.

By and large, Australians are keen to eschew the name-calling, reductionist Republican rhetoric that has dominated American politics since at least 2015. Furthermore, a lack of clear action on climate change is unlikely to see Deves supported: it’s not that Australia is a progressive utopia, but rather, that her platform simply doesn’t cover enough of the issues that voters in Warringah care about. The controversy around the decisive decision to run Deves, who was hand-picked, could be the final nail in the coffin for the unpopular Prime Minister, who has faced numerous blunders since his contentious grasp for the party leadership back in 2018.

So what will happen if the Liberals fail to secure a victory at the forthcoming election? The party has an unfortunate history of mutiny, with the moderate Malcolm Turnbull being ousted by a more conservative faction headed by Peter Dutton in a leadership spill back in 2018, which delivered Scott Morrison the party leadership, and gave way to the Wentworth by-election (which pre-empted the Teal wave). Ironically, Malcolm Turnbull’s middle name, Bligh, is a family tradition and a reference to Governor William Bligh, who captained the HMS Bounty when it was mutinied in 1789, seventeen years prior to his governorship.

Scott Morrison’s move to the right will likely alienate more progressive members of the party including the current treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, who is running in Kooyong. Throwing one of his closest colleagues under the proverbial bus won’t loom well for the Prime Minister if he can’t take the party to victory on the 21st, and a Labor win might see him ousted from the leadership – in which case, the question remains: who would replace him?

Who knows what the future holds? Internationally, the outcome of the election is unlikely to have a significant impact on global markets. Australia is a major energy producer, and both major parties support the continued production of fossil fuels, including a $1bn commitment by the Coalition that includes plans to frack the Beetaloo Basin. This comes amidst a perceived unwillingness on the part of Labor to commit to hard climate targets (likely in order to gain support from the rural vote, which is more dependent upon those industries that contribute to climate change).

None of the minor parties has a viable platform for securing a majority at the election. The most likely outcome seems to be a Labor win, with support from the Greens where necessary to pass legislation. Additionally, the Teal Independents could play a linchpin role in passing legislation, given that they have quasi-party status. More relevant, however, is the view that the election is an experiment in conservatism. Given the proximity of Australian politics, both literally and figuratively, New Zealand politicians should heed the outcome of this election, and what it may imply for the late-2023 election here.

* Odds via TAB as at 9th May 2022 and subject to change. TAB is relevant because, as a bookmaker, it has a commercial interest in providing an objective summary of election probabilities

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