Amongst a flurry of venture investment into dairy alternatives, our country's devotion to dairy appears to be slowly changing. With more and more scrutiny on the negative environmental effects of the traditional dairy industry, we potentially could be on the verge of a major sector transformation. In saying that, unlike what some commentators and documentaries would like you to believe, one side of the story does not tell the full picture. New Zealand’s reliance on dairy is significant, and any fundamental shift away from it will take some heavy pushing.

A recently released documentary, MILKED, follows a vendetta against big corporate Fonterra. Between emotionally jolting shots of abattoirs and diseased bovines, there is a clear and obvious message. Dairy farming is not good for our environment, or New Zealand’s emissions targets.

Despite the filmmaker’s desire, it is not as easy as completely phasing the dairy industry out. Economically and socially, it is not viable. A transitional change to more sustainable alternatives, gradually adopted by a growing number of farmers, seems an appropriate and realistic route forward. All things considered, what viable and realistic options do New Zealand farmers and consumers have?

One of the most popular dairy alternatives is almond milk. But a lot of people are unaware of the natural capital that is needed to produce almond milk. For a start, it needs 6,098 litres of water to produce one litre of milk. And with 80% of the world’s almonds being grown in California – a drought-ridden state for the last decade – it doesn’t take an environmentalist to realise the cautionary red flags. Although not as greenhouse gas-intensive as traditional dairy farming, it does in fact use 20 times the water. Perhaps something to factor in when considering New Zealand’s environmental stakeholders.

Another popular alternative dairy is soy milk. Made from soybeans, the “milk” is entirely plant-based. Brazil is the largest producer and exporter of soybeans globally - and herein lies the environmental concern. Much of the deforestation in the Amazon Rainforest has been to facilitate widespread soybean cultivation. Although, this doesn’t necessarily mean it can’t be a viable alternative in New Zealand. With limited (but promising) commercial success so far, more trials are underway to determine the best type of soybean for New Zealand conditions. If pesticides, deforestation, and industrial monoculture can be kept to a minimum, transitioning to soybean production could definitely be an opportunity for keen farmers.

Is oat milk the holy grail? With the lowest environmental footprint of the alt-dairy’s, New Zealand has already produced some eager start-ups taking advantage of the oat bull run. One major advantage of oats is that the crop can be easily rotated, avoiding the detrimental impacts of monoculture on soil nutrients. Plus, the versatile nature of the crop means that it can grow abundantly in New Zealand. There are concerns over the environmental impact of the post-harvest process, of which New Zealand has limited facilities to do so. One oat milk brand sends its oats all the way to Sweden, then brings the milk back here. Not so environmentally friendly. Despite this, the environmental impacts are greatly reduced (including significantly less water usage) when compared to traditional dairy and other alternatives. With investment pouring in, the future for oats looks bright.

But there is no guaranteeing consumer buy-in with any of these alternatives. Although branded as “milk” some of these options fall more under the “juice” category. Taste, texture, and complexion aren’t the same – all things consumers are selective about. Our dairy loving nation knows the nutritional value of traditional milk and may take some convincing to look elsewhere. Unsurprisingly, the number of consumers opting for non-dairy is undoubtedly on the rise, but we are yet to reach a point that makes it viable for a significant number of dairy farms to switch tacks.

Any change will have to be steady, taking into consideration social and economic factors. With 3.5% of the entire country’s GDP reliant on dairy4, huge changes could be of significant detriment to the economy and ultimately the consumer’s wallet. High suicide rates already exist amongst New Zealand farmers thanks to seemingly never-ending margin and regulatory pressures, so any shift will have to be balanced, and appropriately timed.

Perhaps one alt dairy will come to the forefront over the next few years as the obvious alternative to the traditional emission-intensive methods. Once taking into consideration the nutritional benefits and the mass consumer acceptance needed, New Zealand may be a long way off from a disruptive change in the industry. Whether it’s embedded in the kiwi way, or a personal consumer choice, dairy milk is still out and out preferred. Transition will be slow, but innovative, as the industry plays a balancing act with the needs of the economy, environment, and population.

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April 4TH 2022 | ISSUE NO.31